Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.040902 0.046236 0.052158 0.059250 0.067550 0.076997 0.088629
2025-12-28 0.032884 0.039556 0.047554 0.057944 0.071226 0.087829 0.110460
2026-01-04 0.027715 0.035189 0.044771 0.058170 0.076768 0.102203 0.140570
2026-01-11 0.023416 0.031186 0.041768 0.057602 0.081358 0.116810 0.176037
2026-01-18 0.020015 0.027837 0.039094 0.057042 0.086057 0.133268 0.220846
2026-01-25 0.016936 0.024460 0.035831 0.055024 0.088264 0.146966 0.267644
2026-02-01 0.014266 0.021291 0.032370 0.052050 0.088345 0.157551 0.314734
2026-02-08 0.012597 0.019433 0.030691 0.051775 0.093333 0.179459 0.398289
2026-02-15 0.011239 0.017880 0.029274 0.051715 0.098915 0.205258 0.508982
2026-02-22 0.010191 0.016697 0.028310 0.052348 0.106315 0.238870 0.668232
2026-03-01 0.009272 0.015611 0.027348 0.052815 0.113705 0.276657 0.878035
2026-03-08 0.008287 0.014272 0.025696 0.051492 0.116617 0.304661 1.087538
2026-03-15 0.007168 0.012561 0.023103 0.047659 0.112397 0.311241 1.227756
2026-03-22 0.006571 0.011776 0.022272 0.047752 0.118953 0.357085 1.627241
2026-03-29 0.006130 0.011243 0.021887 0.048868 0.129102 0.423764 2.284779
2026-04-05 0.005679 0.010630 0.021238 0.049197 0.137242 0.490626 3.134891
2026-04-12 0.005270 0.010056 0.020586 0.049393 0.145285 0.565791 4.328504
2026-04-19 0.004825 0.009350 0.019526 0.048230 0.148327 0.621997 5.608426
2026-04-26 0.004378 0.008589 0.018230 0.046113 0.147171 0.657289 6.864295
2026-05-03 0.004100 0.008174 0.017715 0.046225 0.154957 0.753950 9.721241
2026-05-10 0.003856 0.007808 0.017270 0.046465 0.163619 0.869643 14.146199
2026-05-17 0.003661 0.007532 0.017014 0.047269 0.175414 1.027453 22.008060
2026-05-24 0.003475 0.007257 0.016721 0.047891 0.186971 1.206718 34.838032